Pioneer    November 2006    page 12 & 13

A Growing Population;
A Growing Problem?

Ireland needs to build two new cities by 2050 to cope with an exploding population. WILLIAM A. THOMAS gives his views on the potential problems that might occur if our housing developments and infrastructure are not up to scratch to accommodate our newest citizens.

In 1996, census told us that we had 3.6 million people living in Ireland. That was a believable figure at that time, given the huge emigration out of Ireland in the 1980's, due in part to Government stupidity over the economy, and extreme credit restrictions which drove many companies out of business.

In 2001, we had another census, and that identified that we had 3.9 million people. Well that figure was totally wrong for several reasons, one the newspapers were reporting that 250,000 people had gone on holidays from Dublin airport alone a few days before the census was taken during the Easter holidays, something that has been repeated this past Easter, when we were told that 300,000 people left Dublin Airport. There are of course other points of exit, which will probably give a real figure of a minimum of up to 500,000 out of the country when the census was taken.

There are some realities however that we must consider and that is in 1996 we were building some 50,000 new houses per year, and we have never gone below that figure. In fact we are now building some 85,000 homes per year and the demand is growing, and conceivably we have built in excess of 700,000 homes in the past 10 years. If only one person lived in each new house, then that would make the population 4.3 million, which incidentally was the new figure published by the CSO in 2001. If there were a minimum of 2 persons in each new house built since 1996, then the population here would now be 5 million and now we are close to that actual population in 2006. The Government will tell us that we will not reach 5 million until 2020, and that is a complete fabrication, and the evidence stares us in the face every day when you see each town, city and village, grid-locked with traffic, every train and bus in the country overflowing, and long queues in every establishment we go into from banks to post offices and hospitals. We are also faced with recently published figures like 185,000 Polish people working in Ireland, some 200,000 Chinese and a whole spectrum of other nationalities from central to eastern Europe and as far away as Brazil. The population of Israel grew by 2.5 million in two years, and Ireland's population could well do likewise; in fact I am now going to make some predictions, given the current trend. By 2010 we will have 6 million, by 2015, we will have 7 million, by 2025 we will be back to the 1846 levels and by 2050 we will have in excess of 11 million people living in Ireland, and it is precisely these figures that the politicians don't want to talk about, lest they have to think something which they are incapable of doing. It has been said they only think as far as the next election and the long-term problems are left to another day, hence the policy of "retrofit" in everything, which drives up costs to outrageous proportions, rather than future-proof the future. Both the so called Spatial Strategy and Decentralisation programs were total failures, and the former saw the building of clusters of houses built around small towns and villages, sucking the life blood and character out of them. Once we had community in these towns where everyone knew each other and helped each other, now we have anonymity or dormer towns, where people don't have an active life in the place, but just sleep while they commute to and from a place of work, usually Dublin. (I am really amazed that we don't change the name of Ireland to the Republic of Dublin where all the decisions are made, and the rest of the Country is made of quangoes and other toothless organisations who have no power, save what they are given from Dublin's oligarchs.)

Ireland needs to seriously consider building at least one, if not two, new cities for several reasons, one, as a real counter balance to Dublin, which will not cope in the long term, two, as a real move towards decentralisation, and three to give other people the chance and the choice of a new city, a real city with the proper infrastructure, good planning, and amenities. Ireland has 5 cities today, all built by someone else, and all built on water. You don't really get a full city infrastructure, rather you get a core of a city, and then they have built massive urban sprawl around the cores and created commuters, traffic jams, etc and in so doing reduced the quality of life and indeed the quantity of life with people spending 20 and 30 years of their lives sitting in traffic jams. Urban sprawl is nonsense and should be illegal, as it is precisely this type of building structure (with bare minimum and no space) that creates strife within families and communities. Young people are deprived of social and recreational infrastructure. There is limited or no public transport infrastructure, and few public amenities. People are segregated, isolated, become socially deprived, and dependent on the State for everything. They are often known as the working class, and ironically many have passed through this life, never having a job, and spending years with their fathers and their grandfathers in prison, and if you don't believe me ask Mr. John Lonergan, the Governor of Mountjoy Prison.

What we need to do is to think about building a whole new city on a green-field site, near an international airport, and away from the sea (given all the warnings about global warming and rising sea levels etc) We should think in terms of other new cities being built around the world today, for example China is currently building 14 new cities to cope with its population boom. We can learn from mistakes in the past by looking at past new cities, like Brasilia, Milton Keynes, Canberra, Weston and so on. We have new ideas about "designing out crime", and human factors like colours, sound, amenities, social infrastructure, recreational infrastructure, things that are not now considered either by planning laws in Ireland, or by developers themselves. The word city therefore should not be synonymous with crime, gridlock, social disorder etc, these only come about as a result of multiple failures in every dimension, especially when one tries to make politics the key factor, rather than the human dimension and then based on solid social models. People don't misbehave when things are right, but they become deviant when things are wrong and these need to be the factors that should be considered in the planning stage of any new town or city.

We are therefore proposing that the idea of design go out to international tender and be given a certain criteria, like a Celtic dimension coupled with contemporary, historical, and future dynamic. We don't have to accept any design, but it would be a wonderful thing if we could build a beautiful city, which would be the first one to be built in Ireland in over 600 years and which we could call our own. It would truly be a move to maturity as a nation and something, which we could be proud of. A beautiful new city would become a major tourist attraction, a centre of excellence in both education and medical care, transport infrastructure, a new government centre offering new facilities for an all-Ireland government of 10 million plus. Up to eight different architectural styles would be used to make such a city unique, along with geothermal non-polluting heating, enriched solar panelling and an array of environmentally friendly technology. Sewage would be dried and sold off as fertilizer, once treated, as is what happens in the major cities of Germany. Grey water would be used for flush and general use while precious potable spring water would be on special tap for drinking.

Such a proposal as the one described above has been presented to the Irish government on two occasions, once at its first launch in 2000 and more recently in 2006. The prospect of a new city for Ireland is very real, and debates have taken place in both the Dail and the Senate. However, it would seem that a new city is such a big project, that politicians cannot get their heads around it. Just look at the problems trying to get an additional terminal at Dublin airport, never mind a new city. However, the need for pre-planning in Ireland is becoming more evident and more urgent by the day. A project like this needs to become a world project and go out for international tender for design, build, finance, etc. There is plenty of money about, and €50 to €100 billion would be easy to find in today's market, (don't forget that in the year 2000 the Irish bought property in Malaga alone worth €10 billion, and they have been snapping up property all over Europe, Russia, the US, Middle East since-what a pity that so much money has to go overseas and not to building a whole new and beautiful city?)

We will need a minimum of 5 square kilometres and up to 20 square kilometres to accommodate a city with a minimum population of one million and a maximum of 2 million. The city will need to be at least 1,000 feet above sea level and we have found such a place on the Knock Plateau which rises to 1,200 feet above sea level and has an international airport, a huge rail network which can go north to Donegal, and south as far as Waterford, Cork, and Rosslare, via Galway and Limerick and has two lines to Dublin. We also have the N17, North-South, the N4 and N5 East and West, and the area we have chosen have only 189 people living there, as the population of the entire region is down some 55% since 1925.

Full details of the entire proposal, location, graphics etc can be found on the following website
www.newcityforthewest.com
See also new theme towns that are been built in the USA and other places, this one is specifically built like Venice
( http://www.lakelasvegas.com/amenities_montelagovillage.asp)

In conclusion, I can only say that a new city is the way forward and I have established the right location in the West and it needs to be a green-field site and pre-planning is essential for the success of this. Professor Ed Walsh of the University of Limerick thinks we should have two new cities and I agree, but we need to debate this further and put plans into action, before we destroy this country with ribbon development, and urban sprawl without any focus. The human cost of bad planning is too great, as we don't need to be oppressed or depressed by awful ugliness, rather we should be planning and designing in beauty, and quality of life not just for the few but for all the people of Ireland.